Week of June 29, 2026 updates:
Israel-Hezbollah / Lebanon (score 55 to 45, De-escalating) — On June 27, Israeli military forces began withdrawing from the first two pilot areas in southern Lebanon, and Lebanese Armed Forces moved into the vacated positions. This is the first physical Israeli troop withdrawal from Lebanese territory since the ceasefire was established. The framework agreement commits to gradual, comprehensive withdrawal from all Lebanese territory. The test: whether the LAF can maintain exclusive control in those areas, and whether Hezbollah permits it without contest. No Hezbollah resistance in the pilot areas was reported this week.
Gaza / Israel-Hamas (score 98 to 97) — For the first time since October 2023, Hamas showed “a high level of positivity” toward Clause 8 and agreed in principle to relinquish its heavy weapons inventory and storage. This is the first genuine Hamas movement toward disarmament of any kind. The 60,000-reservist offensive remains on standby while talks continue. The US opened direct negotiations with Hamas through Qatari intermediaries for the first time. Sticking points: the US Board of Peace is demanding Hamas also provide tunnel maps and that Palestinian civilians surrender personal weapons. Cairo sources describe this as a major additional obstacle. Gaza flashpoint reduced from 99% to 85% Critical.
Iran-Israel-US War (score 55 to 48, De-escalating) — Approximately 35 of 80 Hormuz mines have been cleared; a clear shipping corridor is expected by July 10-15. At the Burgenstock nuclear talks, Iran agreed to IAEA inspections of Fordow and Natanz, with inspection dates being set. A US-Iran military communication hotline for Hormuz incidents was established June 24 which is the first direct military channel between the two countries. The Dubai medical logistics hub partially reopened June 26, allowing the first medicine shipments for Sudan* since the Hormuz closure began in March.
*Sudan — The Dubai hub restoration begins addressing one of the most documented secondary casualties of the Iran war: medicines for 400,000 Sudanese stranded in Dubai since March are beginning to move. Sudan’s drone war itself continues: 1,000+ civilians killed in five months, RSF war spreading geographically.
[New flashpoint] UAE Barakah Nuclear Plant (55%, Critical) — A drone struck the electricity generator outside the Barakah reactor perimeter on May 26; the UN Security Council condemned the attack on June 26. This continues the pattern established at Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhia of nuclear infrastructure being used as a coercive instrument.
Primary source:
Times of Israel live blog, June 26, 2026 — timesofisrael.com / CNN, June 26, 2026 — cnn.com / Al Jazeera, June 27, 2026 — aljazeera.com / Lebanese Army Command official statement, June 22, 2026 — lebarmy.gov.lb / Al Jazeera, June 23, 2026 — aljazeera.com / The National, June 7, 2026 — thenationalnews.com / Anadolu Agency, June 17, 2026 — aa.com.tr / Long War Journal, June 19, 2026 — longwarjournal.org / US Central Command official statement — centcom.mil / New York Times, June 16, 2026 — nytimes.com / Iran International, April 22, 2026 — iranintl.com / CNBC, June 2, 2026 — cnbc.com / UN Security Council press statement SC/16370 — press.un.org / UN official statement — un.org / US News & World Report, May 26, 2026 — usnews.com