Week of July 6, 2026 updates:
Gaza / Israel-Hamas (score 97 to 98) — The war reached 1,000 days on July 2. On July 6, Hamas dissolved its government. This is the same government the US peace plan required to receive civilian governance authority. Without it, the Board of Peace has no recipient for the 20-point plan. 60,000 reservists remain mobilized. A large offensive is now more likely with no functioning negotiating track on the Palestinian side. Gaza flashpoint raised to 95% Critical.
Iran-Israel-US War (score 48 to 52) — Hormuz mine clearing has not begun. Iran is insisting it will clear the 80+ mines alone under MOU Article 5. The IMO confirmed 400-500 ships remain stranded. European minesweepers are idle offshore. Iran’s 30-day window from the June 17 signing expires July 17 — a material compliance deadline. Iran/Hormuz flashpoint raised to 25% Elevated.
Russo-Ukrainian War (score 97) — Russia launched an 11-hour barrage on Kyiv July 2, killing 21 civilians. The June deadline for Trump’s 20-point peace plan passed without agreement. US House passed Russia sanctions and Ukraine aid July 3; Senate not expected to act.
Primary source:
CNN, July 6, 2026 — cnn.com/2026/07/06/middleeast/hamas-dissolves-gaza-government-intl / Washington Post, July 2, 2026 — washingtonpost.com / Stars and Stripes, July 2, 2026 — stripes.com / CFR Global Conflict Tracker, June 2026 — cfr.org / The National, June 30, 2026 — thenationalnews.com / ReliefWeb IPC Analysis, April 28, 2026 — reliefweb.int